QUATTRO IN ACTION
How big will a promising new drug be?
LEADING BIOPHARMACEUTICAL MAKER
A biotech company was developing a first-in-class cancer treatment with promising initial trial results arising from its innovative mechanism-of-action.
However, revenue predictions from Wall Street analysts varied widely. One of the company’s key investor groups wanted a much deeper understanding of how big this drug would truly become.
Quattro created a disease state and physician segmentation grounded in extensive understanding of treatment patterns among thought leaders and community physicians.
Then for the new medication, Quattro gauged the magnitude of realistic adoption and usage for each patient type within each physician segment, given how physicians perceived the relative strengths of the drug.
Major gain from one of the largest biotech M&A deals of the year
Quattro’s model projected major upside even though estimates were more skeptical.
Using Quattro’s input, the investor group expanded its position in the stock. When the drug launched, it proved to be a spectacular success, and the company was soon acquired in one of the largest M&A deals of the year. Quattro’s client elected to make substantial additional investment in the company and achieved dramatic gains when the company was acquired.