QUATTRO IN ACTION
What is the realistic patient volume for a new drug to treat certain types of hospital-acquired antibiotic-resistant infections?
POTENTIAL MAJOR HEALTHCARE INVESTORS
A biotech startup had developed a new proprietary version of an older class of broad-spectrum, bactericidal antibiotic.
The product was targeted at antibiotic-resistant infections that occurred mainly among hospital or long-term care patients with extended use of ventilators or catheters.
After a successful Phase 3 trial, stock price for the company began to rise rapidly even though the extent of future use was uncertain. A fund was considering making a major investment of the company, but first the group asked Quattro to evaluate the true potential.
Quattro developed a hospital segmentation for acute and long-term care based on the prevalence of key antibiotic resistant infections.
The team conducted extensive interviews with infectious disease specialists and other physicians in each segment but especially high-prevalence institutions to evaluate current and future treatment patterns with existing regimens like aminoglycosides, carbapenems, or polymyxins, as well as the new product. Quattro then constructed a detailed sizing of the actual potential for the new drug in US hospitals.
Helped investor client avoid a major loss by disinvesting in a popular company that eventually failed but that other analysts had previously recommended.
Quattro’s assessment was pessimistic; our client chose to disinvest in the company.
The Quattro research projected far lower usage than other optimistic Wall Street analysts were forecasting. When the drug eventually launched, sales were poor as Quattro had projected. Within two years the company had bankrupted after losing over $1 billion of shareholder value.